PROJECT SUMMARY

The research problem addressed by this project is the security and resiliency of prairie industrial water supplies in a changing climate. This problem is significant because water-consumptive industries in the Prairie Provinces are a major contributor to the national economy, but they depend on secure and reliable water supplies in a region characterized by a permanent water deficit (in average years). Given the potential for prolonged water deficits in a future warmer climate, there is no guarantee that industrial water allocations will have sufficient priority to be honored. The aim of the proposed project is to support and facilitate planned adaptation to climate change in the Prairie Provinces’ energy and mining industries. This objective will be achieved through original research on past and future variability of the hydroclimate of the Assiniboine River basin, using tree rings as a proxy of past hydroclimate and the watershed hydrology simulated by the MESH hydrological model driven by projections from a Regional Climate Model. This new scientific knowledge will be translated so that it can be applied to climate risk assessment and adaptation planning in the mining and energy sectors.