Barrow Sauchyn-2019-Uncertainty in climate projections and time of emergence of climate signals in the western Canadian Prairies

This paper has examined the relative significance of uncertainty in future climate
projections from a subset of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5
(CMIP5) global climate models for the Prairie Provinces of western Canada. This
was undertaken by determining: (a) the contribution of model and scenario uncertainty and natural variability to the total variance of these future projections, and
(b) the timing of climate signal emergence from the background noise of natural climate variability.